Quantification of Emissions Savings Based on Food Waste Prevention

ClearCOGS

Environmental Defense Fund

Climate Corps 2024

Written by

McKenzie Huneke

University of Waterloo, PhD Candidate

Climate Corps® embeds trained graduate students in organizations to advance climate solutions and accelerate progress toward organizational sustainability goals.

The following report is the result of a 9 week Climate Corps fellowship at ClearCOGS.

Overview and Background

Fellowship Overview

Project Methodology and Data

Fellowship Project Metrics

Summary Metrics

Food Category Metrics

Customer Analysis Metrics

Overview and Background

Food waste has been recognized as an urgent global environmental issue requiring immediate action – the United Nations, U.S. Government, European Parliament, global business coalitions such as the Consumer Goods Forum, and more have all set goals to cut food loss and waste in half by 2025 or 2030 (ReFED). As the single largest component of landfills, wasted food emits methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. Food waste is also a massive economic problem for businesses and organizations across the food system, as well as for consumers. In 2022, food waste cost the U.S. $428 billion (ReFED). While the financial cost of uneaten food is greatest for consumers, food surplus within all food industry sectors was worth about $221.5 billion (ReFED). Across the food supply chain, food waste is generated at multiple points – including farms, manufacturers, retailers, foodservice, and homes.

The ClearCOGS Climate Corps fellowship project focused on quantifying emission savings and socio-environmental cost impact reductions based on food waste prevention. Foodservice providers face challenges in forecasting how much food to prepare to meet daily customer demand. Overproduction, bulk purchase errors, and improper storage contribute to food waste accumulation in landfills and substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. ClearCOGS is an AI-powered technology for restaurants to forecast daily preparation, stock, and staffing to increase profitability and prevent food waste before it is created. ClearCOGS engaged McKenzie Huneke to quantify greenhouse gas reductions resulting from food waste prevention for ClearCOGS customer restaurants.

The project aimed to address questions including:

Which standardized emissions data/factors from ReFED (and other sources) should be considered for use in potential calculations of emissions based on food waste reductions?
Which ClearCOGS datasets should be considered for use in potential calculations of emissions based on food waste reductions?
How should emissions based on food waste reductions be calculated based on integration or combination of ClearCOGS datasets and standardized emissions data/factors?
Based on the potential output of emissions calculation, what level of data, information, or insights should be surfaced to customers via the ClearCOGS solution about emissions reductions based on food waste reductions?
If time permits, how can we incorporate food waste tracking, reductions, and insights benefits into current/future ClearCOGS product(s)?

ClearCOGS is unique in its value proposition and approach as a technology provider addressing the forecasting and preparation stage for restaurants and foodservice industry customers. There is a gap in the published literature related to food waste prevention resulting from technology intervention at the forecasting and preparation stage among foodservice providers. As of 2024, no quantification of emissions reductions related to food waste prevention resulting from technology intervention at the forecasting and preparation stage among foodservice providers has been published publicly. This fellowship project aimed to address that gap by taking a novel approach to quantify emission reductions from food waste prevention among ClearCOGS customers at the forecasting and preparation stage of foodservice.

Quantification of emission reductions from food waste prevention among ClearCOGS customers is important because it may help generate broader awareness among the restaurant industry about the food waste emissions resulting specifically from preparation practices. This may ultimately help contribute to environmental and economic objectives across multiple levels, impacting individual restaurants and local, regional, and national initiatives for food waste reduction.

Fellowship Overview

The fellow approached the challenge using a three-part process:

Identify datasets and applicable emissions factors to calculate emissions based on food waste prevention. After reviewing ClearCOGS datasets and related regional food supply chains, the fellow selected emissions factors from ReFED, WRAP, and Hestia.
Quantify emissions based on food waste prevention by integrating ClearCOGS datasets and standardized emissions factors. The fellow found that ClearCOGS helps to prevent between 2.90 – 4.48 tons of CO2eq monthly, depending on ingredient types, per restaurant location.
Propose a way to share emissions insights with customers and prospects to communicate the potential of food waste prevention. This included exploring how results might be shared publicly with customers and media, while following relevant disclosure rules and environmental marketing guidelines. It also included exploring how ClearCOGS might incorporate food waste tracking, reductions, and insights benefits into current/future ClearCOGS products. The fellow created an automated emissions calculator concept, including GHG metrics and related socio-environmental cost measurements of food waste, that ClearCOGS will build and launch.

Project Methodology and Data

The basic calculation methodology for estimating emissions reductions related to food waste prevention is as follows:

(Average Weight of Food Wasted) X (Standardized Emissions Factor) = GHG Footprint

Where:

Average Weight of Food Wasted = (total average weight of food waste based on customer data before ClearCOGS or before optimization during a specified duration) – (total average weight of food waste based on customer data with ClearCOGS implemented or fully optimized during a matching duration)
Standardized Emissions Factors = the rate of total GHG emissions measured as CO2eq (Carbon Dioxide Equivalent) for food waste based on food categories, as calculated from aggregated data inputs and estimates that would result from a given food surplus management scenario.
- In the U.S., ReFED emissions factors are based on both upstream and downstream factors developed from U.S. source and destination data provided by Quantis.
- In the U.K., WRAP emissions factors are based on both upstream and downstream factors developed from data collected and provided by Hestia, reflecting the regional supply chains and lifecycle of ingredients and food items sourced from within the U.K. and Europe as well as certain imported ingredients typically transported to European markets from global sources.
All estimations assume food waste prevention resulting from ClearCOGS implementation divert food waste from landfills as the final downstream destination. Individual customers may achieve different values of emissions reductions by diverting food waste to other destinations, such as food donation, animal feed, industrial uses, anaerobic digestion, compost, or land application.

Table 1: Food Waste Greenhouse Gas & Water Emissions Factors Used for United States (ReFED)

Table 2: Social-Environmental Costs Used

Fellowship Project Metrics

Summary Metrics

Across ClearCOGS customers analyzed for this project, average monthly reduction metrics per customer location were as follows:

380 lbs of food waste weight prevented, on average
0.25 tons of methane emissions prevented, on average
1.01 tons of CO2eq emissions prevented, on average
66,429 gallons of water prevented, on average
$375 methane social cost prevented, on average
$162 CO2eq social cost prevented, on average
$1,048 food waste social cost prevented, on average

Food Category Metrics

Across ClearCOGS customers analyzed for this project, food category metrics were as follows:

Food Waste Categories Addressed by ClearCOGS Customers:
- Breads & Bakery: 52% of ingredients addressed
- Fresh Meat & Seafood: 24% of ingredients addressed
- Prepared Foods: 21% of ingredients addressed
- Dairy & Eggs: 3% of ingredients addressed
Average Percentage of Food Waste Weight Reduction per Food Category:
- Dairy & Eggs: 76% reduction
- Fresh Meat & Seafood: 66% reduction
- Prepared Foods: 36% reduction
- Breads & Bakery: 30% reduction
Methane Reduction per Food Category:
- Fresh Meat & Seafood: 0.49 tons reduction
- Dairy & Eggs: .015 tons reduction
- Breads & Bakery: .010 tons reduction
CO2eq Reduction per Food Category:
- Fresh Meat & Seafood: 1.55 tons reduction
- Dairy & Eggs: 0.96 tons reduction
- Prepared Foods: 0.46 tons reduction
- Breads & Bakery: 0.49 tons reduction
Water Reduction per Food Category:
- Fresh Meat & Seafood: 115,646 gallons reduction
- Prepared Foods: 58,450 gallons reduction
- Dairy & Eggs: 3,748 gallons reduction
- Breads & Bakery: 3,326 gallons reduction

Customer Analysis Metrics

Customer 1

Customer 1 is a US-based sandwich restaurant chain. This analysis examined a franchise implementation of ClearCOGS across six locations in Indiana and Kentucky between September 2023 and February 2024. Their aim was to reduce the amount of bread wasted from sandwich preparation.

Before ClearCOGS, the six locations each wasted an average of 300 units of bread per week, totaling approximately 1800 units of bread wasted from all six franchises weekly, or an estimated total average of 7,200 units of bread monthly. Based on the assumption that each unit of the restaurant’s bread weighs an average of 210 grams, this translates to approximately 63 kg of bread waste per week per location, totaling 378 kg of bread waste from all six franchises weekly, or an estimated average of 1,512 kg of bread waste monthly from all six franchises together.

Table 3: Customer 1 Food Waste Before & After ClearCOGS Implementation

As a result of implementing ClearCOGS, Customer 1 achieved the following preventions and savings:

0.05 tons methane prevented = 3,515 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
2.6 tons CO2eq prevented = 6,629 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
17,542 gallons water prevented = 1,020 showers in an average household
$73.63 methane social cost savings
$414.62 CO2eq social cost savings
$4,992.30 food social cost savings

Figure 1: Customer 1 GHG Emissions & Water Prevention

Figure 2: Customer 1 Socio-Environmental Cost Reductions

Customer 2

Customer 2 is a US-based rotisserie chicken restaurant chain with fifteen locations operating in Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Texas. Three locations piloted ClearCOGS in March 2024 for approximately one month. Their aim was to reduce the amount of whole chicken wasted from preparation.

Before ClearCOGS, the three locations each wasted an average of 64.83 chickens per week, totaling approximately 194.5 chickens wasted from all three locations weekly, or an estimated total average of 778 chickens monthly. Based on the assumption that each uncooked chicken weighs an average of 1.8125 grams (4 lbs), this translates to approximately 117.5 kg of chicken waste per week per location, totaling 352.51 kg of chicken wasted from all three locations weekly, or an estimated average of 1,410.05 kg of chicken wasted monthly from all three locations together.

Table 4: Customer 2 Food Waste Before &After ClearCOGS Implementation

As a result of implementing ClearCOGS, Customer 2 achieved the following preventions and savings:

0.08 tons methane = 5,602 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
5.77 tons CO2eq = 14,765 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
430,140 gallons water = 0.65 olympic pools
$117.35 methane social cost savings
$922.82 CO2eq social cost savings
$2,010.13 food social cost savings

Figure 3: Customer 2 GHG Emissions & Water Prevention

Figure 4: Customer 2 Socio-Environmental Cost Reductions

Customer 3

Customer 3 is a UK-based university campus that used ClearCOGS at one coffee shop location to reduce the amount of meal items wasted during preparation for three months. During the first two months of implementation, ClearCOGS worked with the customer to optimize the prediction model. The following analysis compares the first month of implementation compared to the third month of implementation, when the prediction model had been fully optimized.

In the first month, the coffee shop wasted an average of 63.25 meals per week, or an estimated total average of 253 meals monthly. Based on the assumption that each meal weighs an average of 300 grams, this translates to approximately 18.975 kg of meal waste per week, or an estimated average of 75.9 kg of meals wasted monthly. The following meal waste emissions calculations use averages from “prepared food” meal categories from WRAP and Hestia emissions factors.

Table 5: Customer 3 Food Waste Before & After ClearCOGS Optimization

As a result of implementing ClearCOGS, Customer 3 achieved the following preventions and savings:

0.46 tons CO2eq = 1,184 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
3,748 gallons water = 218 showers in an average household
$74 CO2eq social cost savings
$353 food social cost savings

Figure 5: Customer 3 GHG Emissions & Water Prevention

Figure 6: Customer 3 Socio-Environmental Cost Reductions

Customer 4

Customer 4 is a chain of fast casual restaurants in the United States and Canada serving Mexican-style cuisine. One location explored the potential benefits of using ClearCOGS at a single location to reduce the amount of chicken and steak wasted during preparation for one week. The following analysis compares one week of the location at its current daily waste rate for chicken and steak against a ClearCOGS forecast for the same week.

Table 6: Customer 4 Food Waste Before & Forecasted After ClearCOGS Implementation

As a result of implementing ClearCOGS, Customer 4 expects to achieve the following preventions and savings based on the ClearCOGS forecast:

1.44 tons methane = 103,194 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
2.17 tons CO2eq = 5,546 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
161,554 gallons water = 0.24 olympic pools
$2,162 methane social cost savings
$347 CO2eq social cost savings
$755 food social cost savings

Figure 7: Customer 4 GHG Emissions & Water Prevention

Figure 8: Customer 4 Socio-Environmental Cost Reductions

Customer 5

Customer 5 is a Detroit-style pizzeria and catering restaurant chain founded in Michigan in the United States. The chain operates sixteen full service restaurant locations and an additional six carry-out only locations across Michigan. The restaurant wanted to explore the potential benefits of using ClearCOGS at a single test location to reduce the amount of pizza dough, cheese, and chicken tenders during preparation for one month. The following analysis compares a one-month average of the location at its current daily waste rate (based on actual and theoretical usage and waste data from the location from October 1, 2023 through January 14, 2024) for pizza dough, cheese, and chicken tenders against a ClearCOGS forecast for a one-month period.

Table 7: Customer 5 Food Waste Before & Forecasted After ClearCOGS Implementation

As a result of implementing ClearCOGS, Customer 5 expects to achieve the following preventions and savings based on the ClearCOGS forecast:

0.34 tons methane = 2,435 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
2.11 tons CO2eq = 5,402 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
104,415 gallons water = 6,070 showers in an average household
$64 methane social cost savings
$413 CO2eq social cost savings
$3,158 food social cost savings

Figure 9: Customer 5 GHG Emissions & Water Prevention

Figure 10: Customer 5 Socio-Environmental Cost Reductions

Customer 6

Customer 6 is a sourdough pizzeria and catering restaurant founded in Massachusetts in the United States. The restaurant implemented ClearCOGS at its single location beginning in May 2024. Their aim was to reduce the amount of pizza dough wasted during preparation each month. The following analysis compares the restaurant’s pizza dough waste in April 2024, before ClearCOGS implementation, to its dough waste in June 2024, after ClearCOGS implementation.

Before ClearCOGS, the restaurant lost up to 2,420 lbs of pizza dough each month to waste, which represented roughly one third of all the restaurant’s monthly organic high-gluten flour stock purchased for pizza making.

Table 8: Customer 6 Food Waste Before & After ClearCOGS Implementation

As a result of implementing ClearCOGS, the restaurant achieved the following preventions and savings:

0.014 tons methane = 1,016 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
0.75 tons CO2eq = 1,917 miles driven by an average gasoline-powered vehicle
5,073 gallons water = 295 showers in an average household
$21 methane social cost savings
$120 CO2eq social cost savings
$1,444 food social cost savings

Figure 11: Customer 6 GHG Emissions & Water Prevention

Figure 12: Customer 6 Socio-Environmental Cost Reductions

Customer 7

Customer 7 is a restaurant, venue, and bar chain with eight locations in New England in the United States. The chain focuses on fresh, homemade, and high-quality menu items rooted in the traditions of southern barbecue. The menu features a wide selection of barbecue items including prime brisket, St. Louis ribs, pulled pork, and smoked wings.

Customer 7 is planning to implement ClearCOGS in the near future, but will first complete a planned migration to a new restaurant management software platform. In the meantime, Customer 7’s food waste and inventory data was shared with ClearCOGS in preparation for future implementation. This data was used to predict potential reductions and savings that the restaurant chain might be able to achieve, based on hypothetical implementation of ClearCOGS focusing specifically on beef brisket, chicken, and pork butts. Data from one location of Customer 7’s restaurants was selected for the following prediction analysis, due to the completeness and detail of the location’s daily inventory and waste data. The predictions were made based on average reductions and savings achieved with ClearCOGS for fresh meat & seafood ingredients by Customers 2, 4, and 5 as detailed above in this report.

Because the Customer 7 analysis shown here consists of predictions only, the results are not included in the Summary Analysis metrics or the Food Waste Category metrics described at the beginning of the Fellowship Project Metrics section of this report.

Table 9: Customer 7 Food Waste Before ClearCOGS Implementation